Florida's Voters

We're less than 24 hours away before Florida's GOP primary, and across the nation news outlets are crazy covering Florida and its unpredictable voters. So, I thought I'd break down who these voters are and give you an idea on how much retail politicking needs to be done in the Sunshine State.

Florida's Registered Voters
According to the Florida Division of Elections, there are more than 11 million voters with 36 percent registered as Republicans. Democrats hold 41 percent of the votes and independent voters make up 20 percent. http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp
Where are the 4 million-plus Republican voters?  The largest concentration is in South Florida - like Miami-Dade County, Palm Beach, and Broward County. But there are 67 counties in Florida, and the three counties mentioned make up less than one-third of registered Republican voters.
Follow this link, and you can see all the counties and numbers (it's an amateur map I made using very basic software), and it will give you an idea on how much travel these candidates need to do and where they need to reach viewers through advertisements...

What They Want
Now what do these voters want? On the Republican Party of Florida's website, they want what every American wants - prosperity and peace. But they also want something that makes Newt Gingrich appear unfit to represent: "Florida Republicans believe that faith, family and opportunity are what make America the greatest nation ever known in human history." Gingrich automatically has two strikes against him. He's treated religion like his past wives - vowing commitment and then leaving the nest... He was raised a Lutheran, became a Southern Baptist and is now a Catholic. Then again, there is always Romney's Mormon religion...
Ok, no one is perfect, but there is one candidate who seems to live by RPOF's beliefs: Rick Santorum. Is he the dark horse? Or the knight in shining armor? The fact that he put his family first before his bid for the White House is impressive. And though his campaign isn't as big as Romney's or Gingrich's, he appears to have something everyone admires - a sincere heart (something that Romney and Gingrich have had a hard time conveying to the public). There is no doubt they care about their family and country, but as the old saying goes, "Actions speak louder than words."

Ok, back to Florida's voters. Who are they? Well, here are some voter demographics info from Broward County's Democratic Chair, Mitch Ceasar:

The GOP and the Latinos of Florida

One of the rising stars of the Republican party is US Senator Marco Rubio from South Florida, and many think his growing fame within the GOP will lead him to the White House. Some assume that he is a big draw for Latin American voters... But does he represent the Hispanic voting bloc of Florida? According to Broward County's Democratic chairman, Mitch Ceasar, the answer is no. Florida's Latino population is very diverse, and their political views are just as varied as their backgrounds - Puerto Rican, Columbian, Cuban, Mexican, Argentinian, Brazilian and more.

However, for those Hispanic Republicans voting in Florida's primary, what do they think about the candidates and do their positions on immigration influence how they will vote? Ceasar says many in the Hispanic community are for the Dream Act, and any politician opposed to it will not win the hearts and ballots of Latino voters. Well, Mitt Romney opposes the DREAM Act, while Newt Gingrich is for some some aspects of it. So will Florida's Republican Latino voters go for Gingrich? Will Romney's Mexican roots rein in votes from Florida's Hispanic community? Hard to tell, but the DREAM Act will become a big issue during the presidential election. There's a political movement within Hispanic communities to become more politically active and organized with hopes of getting the DREAM Act enacted. Though historically Hispanics have not been extremely influential in politics, perhaps they will this season, or maybe they never will. But, this is definitely something to think about. Check out these articles about Hispanic voters:


Washington Post: Freshman Florida senator would be a big get if was endorsing

San Francisco Chronicle: Republican National Committee to Woo Latinos

Huffington Post: Florida Latino Vote Pits Cuban-American Republicans against Puerto Rican Democrats

ABC News: Newt Gingrich Looks for Latino Support in Bid for Florida Success

KPCC Southern California Public Radio: As Florida's 'Latino Primary" Looms, a Few Things to Note

Fox News: Romney's Stance of DREAM Act Is Magnified in Florida

Understanding Florida - Three States in One

When I think of Florida, I think of fun, sun, beaches and Disney World. However, there's definitely more to the Sunshine State. In fact, it's really three states according to Mitch Ceasar, Democratic party chair for Broward County. According to Ceasar, Florida is broken up into three distinct regions due to its populations. So when campaigning in Florida, it's more like campaigning in South Florida, Central Florida, and North Florida. Hear what Ceasar has to say about Florida:

And here is a party affiliation breakdown in Florida (I'll try to create a map graphic soon):
Florida Division of Elections: Statistical Roadmap of Florida Voter Registration

What Happens Next in Florida

Tonight Newt Gingrich won South Carolina's Republican primary. Now the top three Republican presidential candidates have one state each, but many media outlets still believe Mitt Romney will win Florida and the nomination. So what does Romney have going for him and how can Gingrich surpass him? Money...
According to Ceasar, campaigns need lots of money to compete in Florida. Romney has the money (read previous post), but Gingrich has the momentum and new pro-Gingrich Super PACs could start saturating the Florida media market before Florida's primary (January 31st). However, Florida has already started early voting, and who knows how many Florida Republicans have already committed their votes to Romney.... Here's the latest early voting stats from the Florida Division of Elections.

Here are some links about the primary race heading to Florida:

Los Angeles Times: In Florida, cash-flush Romney has been all but unopposed
Washington Post: Florida Will Show Which GOP Has Momentum
Miami Herald: What Gingrich's SC Romney-stomping means for FL's 'battle royale'
Fox News: GOP Candidates Lay Groundwork for Florida Fight

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/01/what-gingrichs-sc-romney-stomping-means-for-fls-battle-royale.html#storylink=cpy

Money and Debates

Tomorrow a victor will be named for South Carolina's Republican primary and then it's on to Florida. Ceasar talks about how Romney's campaign is attracting voters and how the incredible number of debates is leveling the Republican primary playing field.

Ceasar Sounds Off

For more than a decade Mitch Ceasar has headed the Democratic party of Broward County, Florida and knows retail politicking better than most. And as a former chairman of the Florida Democratic Party and Executive Board member of the DNC, Ceasar understands the machinations of state and national politics.

Ceasar considers himself a moderate Democrat and believes extreme party views (liberal and conservative) are hurting the United States. Earlier this week, Ceasar talked to us about his perspective on national politics, the influence of money, and Florida's primaries. By the time our conversation was over, we had consumed several cups of coffee and logged over an hour of talk time.

Here is one of many excerpts from our conversation: