In a recent Miami Herald editorial former Florida governor Jeb Bush offers the GOP a 2012 plan to win the White House and gain some seats in the US Senate. It's a thoughtful vision to victory. Bush states, "In the 15 states that are likely to decide who controls the White House
and the Senate in 2013, Hispanic voters will represent the margin of
victory." But will GOP leaders take his advice to heart and will Latinos be receptive?
In 2008 the Obama campaign spent a considerable sum courting the Latino vote, and it paid off. According to a Wall Street Journal article this voting group helped Obama win the White House. But whom will Hispanics back in 2012? And will they turn out as they did in 2008 or stay home? A recent Pew Hispanic Center noted only 50 percent of eligible Hispanic voters voted in 2008 and even less cast their ballots in 2010. This year there are more than 21 million Hispanic voters, but how many will actually vote? It's the great unknown, but something both parties are tackling. And it's a top priority for political activists in Hispanic communities.
There's another issue that Bush doesn't explicitly cover in his
editorial - the economy. It's an issue that Bush's friend, US Senator Marco Rubio, says weighs more heavily with the Hispanic community. The Pew Hispanic Center also highlighted the fact Hispanic voters care more about
jobs and the economy than immigration issues (though this is still a hot
topic). So what economic policies will campaigns use to court Latino voters? It's still unclear, but in order to
capture hearts and votes from this important voting block, both parties
need to create a strong economic policy that people can believe and
understand.
This is just a sampling of grassroots groups and organizations trying to register Latino voters:
Voto Latino
The Tequila Party
Somos Republicans
Southwest Registration Voter Education Project
The Hispanic Institute
The United States Hispanic Leadership Institute
The Hispanic Federation
The Hispanic Leadership Network (Jeb Bush is Co-Chairman)
Official stances on Latino issues from the DNC and RNC:
RNC: The Latino Vote 2012 memo
DNC: We Are Hispanics
Articles and Reports mentioned in this post:
Miami Herald's Jeb Bush Editorial
Wall Street Journal on 2008 Hispanic Voters
Pew Hispanic Center on Latino Voters in 2012
Pew Hispanic Center on Latinos and Immigration
Monday, January 30, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Florida's Voters
We're less than 24 hours away before Florida's GOP primary, and across the nation news outlets are crazy covering Florida and its unpredictable voters. So, I thought I'd break down who these voters are and give you an idea on how much retail politicking needs to be done in the Sunshine State.
Florida's Registered Voters
According to the Florida Division of Elections, there are more than 11 million voters with 36 percent registered as Republicans. Democrats hold 41 percent of the votes and independent voters make up 20 percent. http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp
Where are the 4 million-plus Republican voters? The largest concentration is in South Florida - like Miami-Dade County, Palm Beach, and Broward County. But there are 67 counties in Florida, and the three counties mentioned make up less than one-third of registered Republican voters.
Follow this link, and you can see all the counties and numbers (it's an amateur map I made using very basic software), and it will give you an idea on how much travel these candidates need to do and where they need to reach viewers through advertisements...
What They Want
Now what do these voters want? On the Republican Party of Florida's website, they want what every American wants - prosperity and peace. But they also want something that makes Newt Gingrich appear unfit to represent: "Florida Republicans believe that faith, family and opportunity are what make America the greatest nation ever known in human history." Gingrich automatically has two strikes against him. He's treated religion like his past wives - vowing commitment and then leaving the nest... He was raised a Lutheran, became a Southern Baptist and is now a Catholic. Then again, there is always Romney's Mormon religion...
Ok, no one is perfect, but there is one candidate who seems to live by RPOF's beliefs: Rick Santorum. Is he the dark horse? Or the knight in shining armor? The fact that he put his family first before his bid for the White House is impressive. And though his campaign isn't as big as Romney's or Gingrich's, he appears to have something everyone admires - a sincere heart (something that Romney and Gingrich have had a hard time conveying to the public). There is no doubt they care about their family and country, but as the old saying goes, "Actions speak louder than words."
Ok, back to Florida's voters. Who are they? Well, here are some voter demographics info from Broward County's Democratic Chair, Mitch Ceasar:
Florida's Registered Voters
According to the Florida Division of Elections, there are more than 11 million voters with 36 percent registered as Republicans. Democrats hold 41 percent of the votes and independent voters make up 20 percent. http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp
Where are the 4 million-plus Republican voters? The largest concentration is in South Florida - like Miami-Dade County, Palm Beach, and Broward County. But there are 67 counties in Florida, and the three counties mentioned make up less than one-third of registered Republican voters.
Follow this link, and you can see all the counties and numbers (it's an amateur map I made using very basic software), and it will give you an idea on how much travel these candidates need to do and where they need to reach viewers through advertisements...
What They Want
Now what do these voters want? On the Republican Party of Florida's website, they want what every American wants - prosperity and peace. But they also want something that makes Newt Gingrich appear unfit to represent: "Florida Republicans believe that faith, family and opportunity are what make America the greatest nation ever known in human history." Gingrich automatically has two strikes against him. He's treated religion like his past wives - vowing commitment and then leaving the nest... He was raised a Lutheran, became a Southern Baptist and is now a Catholic. Then again, there is always Romney's Mormon religion...
Ok, no one is perfect, but there is one candidate who seems to live by RPOF's beliefs: Rick Santorum. Is he the dark horse? Or the knight in shining armor? The fact that he put his family first before his bid for the White House is impressive. And though his campaign isn't as big as Romney's or Gingrich's, he appears to have something everyone admires - a sincere heart (something that Romney and Gingrich have had a hard time conveying to the public). There is no doubt they care about their family and country, but as the old saying goes, "Actions speak louder than words."
Ok, back to Florida's voters. Who are they? Well, here are some voter demographics info from Broward County's Democratic Chair, Mitch Ceasar:
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Update on Florida
Since last night's GOP debate, Sen. Marco Rubio has chastised the Gingrich campaign for making Romney appear anti-immigration. If you're curious about this issue, you must read this great Miami Herald article. Here's one tidbit from the the story:
"Miami, Rubio's hometown, is a key battleground. The candidates are all wooing the Cuban-exile community here, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of the Republican vote in the largest county of the nation’s largest swing state.
Already, about 54,000 early ballots have been cast in Miami Dade, where nearly three-quarters of the Republicans are Hispanic."
- Miami Herald, Rubio Scolds Gingrich Camp
"Miami, Rubio's hometown, is a key battleground. The candidates are all wooing the Cuban-exile community here, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of the Republican vote in the largest county of the nation’s largest swing state.
Already, about 54,000 early ballots have been cast in Miami Dade, where nearly three-quarters of the Republicans are Hispanic."
- Miami Herald, Rubio Scolds Gingrich Camp
Monday, January 23, 2012
The GOP and the Latinos of Florida
One of the rising stars of the Republican party is US Senator Marco Rubio from South Florida, and many think his growing fame within the GOP will lead him to the White House. Some assume that he is a big draw for Latin American voters... But does he represent the Hispanic voting bloc of Florida? According to Broward County's Democratic chairman, Mitch Ceasar, the answer is no. Florida's Latino population is very diverse, and their political views are just as varied as their backgrounds - Puerto Rican, Columbian, Cuban, Mexican, Argentinian, Brazilian and more.
However, for those Hispanic Republicans voting in Florida's primary, what do they think about the candidates and do their positions on immigration influence how they will vote? Ceasar says many in the Hispanic community are for the Dream Act, and any politician opposed to it will not win the hearts and ballots of Latino voters. Well, Mitt Romney opposes the DREAM Act, while Newt Gingrich is for some some aspects of it. So will Florida's Republican Latino voters go for Gingrich? Will Romney's Mexican roots rein in votes from Florida's Hispanic community? Hard to tell, but the DREAM Act will become a big issue during the presidential election. There's a political movement within Hispanic communities to become more politically active and organized with hopes of getting the DREAM Act enacted. Though historically Hispanics have not been extremely influential in politics, perhaps they will this season, or maybe they never will. But, this is definitely something to think about. Check out these articles about Hispanic voters:
Washington Post: Freshman Florida senator would be a big get if was endorsing
San Francisco Chronicle: Republican National Committee to Woo Latinos
Huffington Post: Florida Latino Vote Pits Cuban-American Republicans against Puerto Rican Democrats
ABC News: Newt Gingrich Looks for Latino Support in Bid for Florida Success
KPCC Southern California Public Radio: As Florida's 'Latino Primary" Looms, a Few Things to Note
Fox News: Romney's Stance of DREAM Act Is Magnified in Florida
However, for those Hispanic Republicans voting in Florida's primary, what do they think about the candidates and do their positions on immigration influence how they will vote? Ceasar says many in the Hispanic community are for the Dream Act, and any politician opposed to it will not win the hearts and ballots of Latino voters. Well, Mitt Romney opposes the DREAM Act, while Newt Gingrich is for some some aspects of it. So will Florida's Republican Latino voters go for Gingrich? Will Romney's Mexican roots rein in votes from Florida's Hispanic community? Hard to tell, but the DREAM Act will become a big issue during the presidential election. There's a political movement within Hispanic communities to become more politically active and organized with hopes of getting the DREAM Act enacted. Though historically Hispanics have not been extremely influential in politics, perhaps they will this season, or maybe they never will. But, this is definitely something to think about. Check out these articles about Hispanic voters:
Washington Post: Freshman Florida senator would be a big get if was endorsing
San Francisco Chronicle: Republican National Committee to Woo Latinos
Huffington Post: Florida Latino Vote Pits Cuban-American Republicans against Puerto Rican Democrats
ABC News: Newt Gingrich Looks for Latino Support in Bid for Florida Success
KPCC Southern California Public Radio: As Florida's 'Latino Primary" Looms, a Few Things to Note
Fox News: Romney's Stance of DREAM Act Is Magnified in Florida
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